| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Charlotte | 34-11 | 1480.8 | +25.7 | 1506.5 | 76.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Lindenwood | 20-13 | 1506.5 | +0.0 | 1506.5 | 50.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 22-38 | 1506.5 | -75.0 | 1431.5 | 91.2% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Boise State | 14-47 | 1431.5 | -12.7 | 1418.8 | 19.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Oregon State | 27-23 | 1418.8 | +23.7 | 1442.5 | 65.3% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Georgia State | 41-20 | 1442.5 | +24.7 | 1467.2 | 77.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Coastal Carolina | 37-45 | 1467.2 | -58.9 | 1408.3 | 62.2% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 21-24 | 1408.3 | -28.9 | 1379.4 | 41.4% |
| 12 | Nov 6 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 23-25 | 1379.4 | -51.1 | 1328.3 | 52.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | James Madison | 10-58 | 1328.3 | -6.5 | 1321.8 | 10.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Marshall | 26-24 | 1321.8 | +58.1 | 1379.9 | 25.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 29-30 | 1379.9 | -48.6 | 1331.3 | 49.3% |
| 20 | Dec 29 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 10-29 | 1331.3 | -25.9 | 1305.4 | 30.4% |